Evaxion Biotechis a Danish pharmaceutical company listed at Nasdaq Stock Market in the US. The company uses an AI-immunology platform decoding the immune system to discover and develop immunotherapies for cancer and other diseases.

Through most of 2021, the share price has underperformed like the most of the biotech sector and is currently down 57% for the year (December 23, 2021). We believe that the decrease is mostly driven by a sector rotation due to Covid-19, which has led many generalist investors to shift focus from growth- and biotech stocks into value and consumer-oriented stocks. In the same period, we have also experienced impressive data in metastatic melanoma from the company’s biggest asset EVX-01 with an objective response rate (ORR) of 67% and good data from EVX-02. We also witnessed a partnership deal with Merck on EVX-01, which we believe also validated Evasion’s technology. We believe that these events should all have had a positive impact on the share price. A closer look at the industry peers also shows that the peers trade at significantly higher prices, which indicates to us, that the Evaxion should have a higher relative valuation. At the same time, we see significant upside to the current share price due to the expected label expansion of EVX-01 and EVX-02 into more solid cancer tumors such as Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and bladder cancer. Therefore, we expect a strong come back to the share price.

THE NEXT TRIGGER WILL BE THE START OF THE PHASE 2B STUDY IN H1 2022

The next trigger in H1’2022 will be the initiation of the Phase 2b study in metastatic melanoma with EVX-01 in combination with Merck’s Keytruda, which is a so-called checkpoint inhibitor and already is approved as monotherapy. The initiation of the study will, in our opinion, reduce the risk on the project and pave the way for the crucial preliminary Phase 2b data expected in H2’2023. Successful data will also pave the way for a strong partnership deal ahead of an expected launch in 2027 in both the US and the EU.

EVX-01 HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE OBJECTIVE RESPONSE RATE OF 67%

The company’s greatest asset EVX-01 is currently under clinical development for the treatment of metastatic melanoma (birthmark cancer with metastatic spread). EVX-01 is a personal peptide immunotherapy, based on PIONEER AI-technology in combination with PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor – Keytruda. Data from the Phase I/IIa study showed an objective response rate (ORR) of 67% among all nine patients, compared to historical data with an OOR of 40% alone with anti-PD1 treatment. The ORR shows the ratio between the number of patients who have achieved a full or partial response to treatment and the total number of patients who are evaluated for response. The study also showed a complete response rate of 22% compared to historically 7% with anti-PD1 treatment alone, and a partial response rate of 44% versus 33% compared with anti-PD1 treatment alone.

The next product in the Company’s pipeline, named EVX-02, is a neo-antigen vaccine for treatment of adjuvant melanoma (patients who have had their tumor removed surgically completely, but with a high risk of relapse). Preliminary data from the Phase I/II study with EVX-02 from the first patients showed T cell activation, even in assays that had not been pretimulated. Therefore, Evaxion will continue to generate more data from the study with the aim of initiating a Phase 2b study with EVX-02 for the treatment of adjuvant melanoma in H2’2022.

SHARE PRICE DEVELOPMENT IN 2021

Read more about the company here.